Ultrashort-Term Power Fluctuation Forecasting Based on the Prediction of the Shipborne Panel Tilt Angle
Source abstract
Abstract
When a solar ship is navigating in the ocean, the swaying motion of a photovoltaic panel will affect the output power of the photovoltaic (PV) power generation system more frequently and violently. In addition to considering multiple climatic factors, this paper also adopts a ship swaying motion and radiation level of sunlight to establish a suitable calculation model for the output power of photovoltaic systems, which are rarely considered at the same time in previous studies, and also to make ultrashort-term power predictions. Furthermore, this paper proposes a multilayer heterogeneous particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm to design the weights and thresholds of a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network to improve the accuracy of forecasting the changes of a photovoltaic panel’s angle, which is used for accurate power output prediction for the purpose of power planning. The case analysis shows the effectiveness of the algorithm, which provides a more reliable method for designing a power prediction system.
Source: crossref · Quality: baseline
Research context
OpenAlex topics: Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics · Energy Load and Power Forecasting · Photovoltaic System Optimization Techniques
SciVX discovery tags are terminology-based. OpenAlex topics are source-provided classifications.
Affiliations
College of Automation, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, China
School of Automation, Harbin University of Science and Technology, Harbin 150080, China
Funding
Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of People's Republic of China
References (25)
Show source-provided references
1. Solar cell efficiency tables (version 55)10.1002/pip.3228 ↗
2. Optimal configuration of energy storage system based on frequency hierarchical control in ship power system with solar photovoltaic plant
3. Proactive frequency control based on ultra-short-term power fluctuation forecasting for high renewables penetrated power systems10.1049/iet-rpg.2019.0234 ↗
4. Qiu, Y.C., Sun, Y.W., and Yuan, C.Q. (2015). Review on the Application and Research Progress of Photovoltaics-ship Power System, IEEE.10.1109/ICTIS.2015.7232167 ↗
5. A novel renewable energy selection model for United Nations’ sustainable development goals10.1016/j.energy.2018.08.215 ↗
6. Optimal design of photovoltaic energy collectors with mutual shading for pre-existing building roofs10.1016/j.renene.2015.01.043 ↗
7. Experimental investigation of partial shading scenarios on PV (photovoltaic) modules10.1016/j.energy.2013.04.009 ↗
8. Optimal distribution for photovoltaic solar trackers to minimize power losses caused by shadows10.1016/j.renene.2010.12.002 ↗
9. Very short-term nonparametric probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy generation-with application to solar energy10.1109/TPWRS.2015.2502423 ↗
10. Short-Term Residential Load Forecasting Based on LSTM Recurrent Neural Network10.1109/TSG.2017.2753802 ↗
11. Wang, Y.L., Soltani, M., and Hussain, D.M.A. (2017, January 24–26). Ship attitude prediction based on input delay neural network and measurements of gyroscopes. Proceedings of the American Control Conference, Seattle, WA, USA.
12. Skeleton-Based Action Recognition Using Spatio-Temporal LSTM Network with Trust Gates10.1109/TPAMI.2017.2771306 ↗
13. Short-Term Wind-Power Prediction Based on Wavelet Transform-Support Vector Machine and Statistic-Characteristics Analysis10.1109/TIA.2012.2199449 ↗
14. Monteiro, C., Bessa, R., Miranda, V., Botterud, A., Wang, J., Conzelmann, G., and INESC (2009). Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009.10.2172/968212 ↗
15. Route planning algorithm for autonomous underwater vehicles based on the hybrid of particle swarm optimization algorithm and radial basis function10.1177/0142331218785708 ↗
16. Chen, X., and Zhao, Q.C. (2018, January 25–27). A Power Forecasting Approach for PV Plant based on Irradiance Index and LSTM. Proceedings of the 2018 37th Chinese Control Conference, Wuhan, China.10.23919/ChiCC.2018.8483960 ↗
17. Accuracy improvement of various short-term load forecasting models by a novel and unified statistical data-filtering method10.1080/15435075.2020.1761810 ↗
18. Monitoring and forecasting system for ship attitude motion based on extended kalman filtering algorithm
19. Learning to forget: Continual prediction with LSTM10.1162/089976600300015015 ↗
20. Long short-term memory10.1162/neco.1997.9.8.1735 ↗
21. Guan, T., and Zhuo, F. (2017, January 6–9). An improved SA-PSO global maximum power point tracking method of photovoltaic system under partial shading conditions. Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference on Environment and Electrical Engineering and IEEE Industrial and Commercial Power Systems Europe (EEEIC/I&CPS Europe), Milan, Italy.10.1109/EEEIC.2017.7977804 ↗
22. Review of solar irradiance forecasting methods and a proposition for small-scale insular grids10.1016/j.rser.2013.06.042 ↗
23. Akhtar, M.R., Raza, M.A., Abid, A., Usman, M., Murtaza, Z., and Gelani, H.E. (2019, January 24–25). Degradation of PhotoVoltaic (PV) Panel Performance due to Shading Effect- Case of Pakistan. Proceedings of the 2019 International Conference on Electrical, Communication, and Computer Engineering (ICECCE), Swat, Pakistan.10.1109/ICECCE47252.2019.8940801 ↗
24. Power correlation for vertical axis wind turbines with varying geometries10.1002/er.1703 ↗
25. Maximum Power Extraction from a Partially Shaded PV Array Using Shunt-Series Compensation10.1109/JPHOTOV.2014.2323698 ↗