The Hidden Short-Term Electro-Thermal–Optical Feedback Loop in Circuit-Level Modeling of PV Hot-Spots

Hot-spots represent a significant failure mechanism in photovoltaic (PV) modules, typically attributable to electrical mismatching. However, thermo-optical degradation of the encapsulant, including discoloration and delamination, can both trigger and amplify mismatch by inducing localized optical losses and temperature rise. The present paper proposes a compact circuit-level electro-thermal–optical model that explicitly captures the short-term closed-loop interaction between mismatching, cell temperature, and temperature-dependent optical properties. The photogenerated current is formulated as a function of irradiance, cell temperature, and encapsulant degradation, enabling dynamic feedback between heating and optical losses. Numerical simulations are carried out on a commercial 40-cell PV module under four representative operating static scenarios. The results demonstrate that, even in the absence of shading, optical degradation can generate multimodal P–V characteristics, drive cells into reverse bias, and produce hot-spots. When optical degradation coexists with irradiance mismatch, the feedback loop significantly amplifies mismatching and shifts the maximum power point toward thermally unsafe operating conditions. These findings demonstrate that maximizing instantaneous power does not necessarily maximize lifetime energy yield, underscoring the need for thermal-aware MPPT strategies and providing a practical framework for early detection of thermo-optical faults in PV modules.