journal article·2023-08-01Open access

Computational analysis of the coronavirus epidemic model involving nonlinear stochastic differential equations

Wafa F. Alfwzan, Kinda Abuasbeh, Ali Raza, Zunair Zeb, Muath Awadalla, Norah Alfadhli

AIP Advances· Volume 13· Issue 8

Abstract

Stochastic methods significantly solve stochastic differential equations such as stochastic equations with a delay, stochastic fractional and fractal equations, stochastic partial differential equations, and many more. The coronavirus is still a threat to humans and puts people in danger. The model is a symmetric and compatible distribution family. In this case, the present model contains seven sub-populations of humans: susceptible, exposed, infected, quarantined, vaccinated, recovered, and dead. Two deterministic to stochastic formation types are studied, namely, transition probabilities and nonparametric perturbations. The positivity and boundedness of the stochastic model are analyzed. The stochastic Euler, stochastic Runge–Kutta, and Euler–Maruyama methods solve the stochastic system. Unfortunately, many issues originate, such as negativity, boundedness, and violation of dynamical consistency. The nonstandard finite difference method is designed in the sense of stochasticity to restore the dynamic properties of the model. In the end, simulations are carried out in contrast to deterministic and stochastic solutions. Overall, our findings shed light on the underlying mechanisms of COVID-19 dynamics and the influence of environmental factors on the spread of the disease, which can help make informed policy decisions and public health interventions.
Source: crossref · Quality: baseline

Research context

OpenAlex topics: COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Fractional Differential Equations Solutions · Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models

SciVX discovery tags are terminology-based. OpenAlex topics are source-provided classifications.

Affiliations

Department of Mathematical Sciences, College of Science, Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University 1 , P.O. Box 84428, Riyadh 11671, Saudi Arabia

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science, King Faisal University 2 , Hofuf, Al Ahsa 31982, Saudi Arabia

Department of Mathematics, Al Zaytona University of Science and Technology 3 , Salfit, Palestine

Department of Computer Science and Mathematics, Lebanese American University 4 , Beirut, Lebanon

Department of Mathematics, Govt. Maulana Zafar Ali Khan Graduate College Wazirabad, Higher Education Department, Govt. of Punjab 5 , Lahore 54000, Pakistan

6 Department of Mathematics, National College of Business Administration and Economics, Lahore 54660, Pakistan

Funding

Princess Nourah Bint Abdulrahman University · King Faisal University

References (30)

Show source-provided references
1. Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.050 ↗
2. On a comprehensive model of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) under Mittag-Leffler derivative10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109867 ↗
3. Who.int., Coronavirus, https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus, 2020.
4. Genomic characterization of the 2019 novel human-pathogenic coronavirus isolated from a patient with atypical pneumonia after visiting Wuhan10.1080/22221751.2020.1719902 ↗
5. Bat origin of human coronaviruses10.1186/s12985-015-0422-1 ↗
6. Oie.int., Questions and Answers on the COVID-19: OIE—World Organization for Animal Health, https://www.oie.int/scientific-expertise/specific-information-and recommendations/questions-and-answers-on-2019novel-coronavirus, 2020.
7. Dynamical analysis of coronavirus disease with crowding effect, and vaccination: A study of third strain10.1007/s11071-021-07108-5 ↗
8. A non-standard computational method for stochastic anthrax epidemic model10.1063/5.0160742 ↗
9. The impact of spike mutated variants of SARS-CoV2 (Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, and Lambda) on the efficacy of subunit recombinant vaccines10.1016/j.bjid.2021.101606 ↗
10. SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 is susceptible to neutralizing antibodies elicited by ancestral spike vaccines10.1016/j.chom.2021.03.002 ↗
11. SARS-CoV-2 variants B.1.351 and P.1 escape from neutralizing antibodies10.1016/j.cell.2021.03.036 ↗
12. Dynamical analysis of a class of SEIR models through delayed strategies10.1063/5.0159942 ↗
13. An extended SEIR model with vaccination for forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic in Saudi Arabia using an ensemble Kalman filter10.3390/math9060636 ↗
14. The role of asymptomatic class, quarantine and isolation in the transmission of COVID-1910.1080/17513758.2020.1773000 ↗
15. Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: A mathematical modelling study10.1016/s1473-3099(20)30144-4 ↗
16. Modeling and analysis of COVID-19 epidemics with treatment in fractional derivatives using real data from Pakistan10.1140/epjp/s13360-020-00819-5 ↗
17. The dynamics of COVID-19 with quarantined and isolation10.1186/s13662-020-02882-9 ↗
18. Quantifying the role of social distancing personal protection and case detection in mitigating COVID-19 out-break in Ontario, Canada10.1186/s13362-020-00083-3 ↗
19. To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic10.1016/j.idm.2020.04.001 ↗
20. The effect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China: A modelling study10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30073-6 ↗
21. The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirus10.1093/jtm/taaa021 ↗
22. Mathematical and computational approaches to epidemic modeling: A comprehensive review10.1007/s11704-014-3369-2 ↗
23. Mathematical analysis of a stochastic model for spread of Coronavirus10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110788 ↗
24. Construction of equivalent stochastic differential equation models10.1080/07362990701857129 ↗
25. Forecasting epidemics through nonparametric estimation of time-dependent transmission rates using the SEIR model10.1007/s11538-017-0284-3 ↗
26. An unconditionally convergent discretization of the SEIR model10.1016/s0378-4754(01)00356-1 ↗
27. A new fractional derivative for differential equation of fractional order under interval uncertainty10.1177/1687814015619138 ↗
28. Covid-19 fake news sentiment analysis10.1016/j.compeleceng.2022.107967 ↗
29. A secure and reliable RFID authentication protocol using digital Schnorr cryptosystem for IoT-enabled healthcare in COVID-19 scenario10.1016/j.scs.2021.103354 ↗
30. Fuzzy fractional-order model of the novel coronavirus10.1186/s13662-020-02934-0 ↗