Modeling Marburg virus transmission in fuzzy-fractional framework using real epidemiological data of World Health Organization

Highly contagious hemorrhagic fever known as Marburg Virus Disease (MVD), which is comparable to Ebola, is contracted by direct contact with an infected person’s bodily fluids. In this study, actual outbreak data of Rwanda are taken from World Health Organization to construct fuzzy-fractional SEIR model for predicting the dynamics of MVD transmission. Fractional order derivatives are utilized to incorporate memory effect in modeling the dynamics of MVD. In addition, most of the viral dynamics are uncertain, and to incorporate fuzzification in frequently encountered controlling parameters, triangular fuzzy numbers are used to normalize limited or inaccurate epidemiological data. For solution and analysis purposes, an extended version of residual power series method (RPSM) is utilized, in which standard RPSM is combined with Laplace transform in fuzzy-Caputo sense. The findings reveals that fuzzy-fractional calculus provides a more flexible and realistic framework for modeling and predicting MVD spreads and can assist in developing more efficient public health strategies.