Quantum effects, thermal statistics and reliability of nanoscale molecular and semiconductor devices

The reliability of nanoscale molecular and semiconductor devices is analysed in terms of generalized error prediction algorithms. The authors statistical procedures predict the reliability of a device based on the assignment of three independent variables. The first variable, P(1) is the probability of determining the state of the device if only one molecule (or information carrier) is present. The second variable N is the number of molecules (or information carriers) operating to assign the state of the device (that is, the number of quantized entities within the ensemble). The third variable xi lim is the limiting logarithmic reliability factor which is a function of the entire system and the environment in which it must operate. Statistical procedures are also presented which allow one to determine the total system reliability based on the assignment of the desired mean-time-between-failures (DMTBF) and the individual reliabilities of the components. Sample reliability analyses are carried out on three devices to determine the minimum number of molecules N that must be included in the ensemble to achieve an error probability of less than 10-10.