Reliability risk modelling of asphalt pavement structure performance under the impact of freeze-thaw cycles

This paper delivers an in-depth risk analysis of asphalt pavement structural strength in the cold Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. It encompasses a wide range of risk factors, including environmental conditions, traffic dynamics, pavement structures and materials, and various human-related factors. These risk factors are quantified using probability distributions, with emphasis on the changes in their mean and variance to simulate the effects of risk. A novel risk metric, termed “ CV all ”, is introduced to encapsulate the cumulative risk associated with each random variable. The paper describes the risk in the load and resistance equations, which govern the asphalt pavement strength, using the probability density function distribution. This approach takes into account the variation coefficient of each parameter. The study highlights that the risk related to the pavement structure number following freeze-thaw cycles significantly influences the reliability of pavement structural strength. These insights are particularly crucial for highway design, construction, and maintenance in cold regions, where the durability and longevity of pavement are paramount.