Remaining Life of Ageing RC Infrastructure for Sustainable development—Deterioration Under Climate Change

This paper assesses structural deterioration in ageing reinforced concrete (RC) infrastructure assets, emphasizing the need for climate adaptation to ensure long-term sustainability. By advancing empirical models to account for the accelerating effects of climate change on carbonation-induced corrosion, this paper for the first time in international literature leverages material vulnerabilities, observed long-term trends degradation trends, and future climate projections to facilitate structural assessment for service life prediction. The method is then applied in two real-world case studies: a dam which also functions as a bridge in Ukraine, constructed in the 1930s, and a long-span bridge in Greece constructed in the 1970s. The models developed quantify the acceleration of carbonation rates under varying environmental conditions due to climate change, revealing regional differences of up to 25 % in degradation rates between coastal and inland areas in different climates (temperate continental and mediterranean).The study also highlights the limitations of standard corrosion models in capturing stress concentrations, cracking, and seismic effects in cantilevered structures, introducing ‘Achilles heel’ points—critical vulnerabilities in low-redundancy structures. The proposed modelling is a robust framework for predicting degradation, offering an effective approach for the global assessment of various reinforced concrete structures and informing optimized design and maintenance strategies. The findings demonstrate the importance of developing tailored adaptation strategies that align with specific environmental conditions. They provide actionable insights for engineers and policymakers to enhance the resilience of RC structures amidst evolving climatic challenges. • Quantifies carbonation-driven corrosion under changing climate conditions. • Evaluates aging RC structures' vulnerabilities to long-term environmental impacts. • Highlights the urgent need for climate-aware adaptation in infrastructure planning. • Develops a framework for assessing RC structures’ resilience to degradation. • Supports sustainable planning by addressing climate-induced deterioration risks.