Scenario configurations for the EU as a cultural heritage protection actor in armed conflicts

Abstract This article aims to identify under which circumstances the European Union, in the next ten years, would be able to become an influential actor in the field of cultural heritage protection in the context of armed conflicts and the Middle East in particular. The wider rationale of this research is to engage policy-makers and experts in the field of international cultural relations in debates on scenario configurations, with a first specific focus on the 2018 European Year for cultural heritage. The article first reviews the existing literature on heritage protection in the context of recent armed conflicts in the Middle East (Syria and Iraq in particular), emphasising recent legal, practical and theoretical debates. It then provides with an overview of EU actions in the field of heritage protection, from prevention to crisis management and the fight against terrorism, both within the EU and abroad. The third part consists of building up a scenario framework made of key necessary factors, trends or determinants affecting the evolution of the EU as an actor in the field of cultural heritage protection in the context of armed conflicts. The article finally tentatively identifies three main scenario configurations to be further explored in participatory scenario-building workshops: Bamiyanisation, leadership, crisis-focused approach.