Comparison of dam failure frequencies and failure probabilities

Abstract Recently the author has compared observed collapse frequencies and computed failure probabilities of bridges. In contrast, in this paper the comparison of observed failure frequencies and the failure probabilities of large dams is carried out. In the paper the failure frequencies are estimated based on various publications related to the failure statistics of dams for different regions and different times. The various publications are considered in terms of a meta‐analysis to provide a robust estimation of the failure frequencies and to identify trends of the failure frequencies. The failure trend analysis considers both; the failure frequency per year and the failure frequency related to the accumulated experience in dam years. The latter enables the comparison to the generalized learning curve. The failure frequencies are compared to the computed probabilities of failure for dams. The comparison is evaluated with regard to the accuracy of the computed values to the observed ones.