journal article·2024-05-14Open access

Understanding the Economics of Aged Traction Batteries: Market Value and Dynamics

Merlin Frank, Sebastian Preussner, Natalia Soldan Cattani, Moritz Frieges, Heiner Hans Heimes, Achim Kampker

Batteries· Volume 10· Issue 5

Abstract

The growing demand and market penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) have led to an expansion in the size of the market for used EVs, accompanied by a continuous increase in the return rate of aging battery systems. Consequently, a second-hand market for aged battery systems, known as second-life batteries, is slowly emerging. Understanding this market is crucial for enabling a functioning circular economy for batteries. This paper analyzes the market mechanisms influencing price formation for used goods, drawing parallels to the largest second-hand market, the used car market, and applies them to the second-life battery market. By examining these mechanisms, insights are provided into the dynamics of the second-life battery market, facilitating the development of strategies to optimize resource utilization and sustainability in the EV industry. Finally, the second-life battery price index is introduced, increasing the transparency of prices for lithium-ion batteries and the circular economy.
Source: crossref · Quality: baseline

Research context

OpenAlex topics: Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure · Advanced Battery Technologies Research · Advanced battery technologies research

SciVX discovery tags are terminology-based. OpenAlex topics are source-provided classifications.

Affiliations

Chair of Production Engineering of E-Mobility Components, RWTH Aachen University, Bohr 12, 52074 Aachen, Germany

Funding

German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate 445 Action

References (64)

Show source-provided references
1. IEA (2024, February 28). Global EV Outlook 2023. Available online: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023.
2. The development of stationary battery storage systems in Germany—Status 202010.1016/j.est.2020.101982 ↗
3. Kampker, A., Heimes, H.H., Offermanns, C., Frank, M., Klohs, D., and Nguyen, K. (2023). Prediction of Battery Return Volumes for 3R: Remanufacturing, Reuse, and Recycling. Energies, 16.10.3390/en16196873 ↗
4. The lithium-ion battery: State of the art and future perspectives10.1016/j.rser.2018.03.002 ↗
5. Fischhaber, S., Regett, A., Schuster, S.F., and Hesse, H. (2024, May 08). Studie: Second-Life-Konzepte für Lithium-Ionen-Batterien aus Elektrofahrzeugen: Analyse von Nachnutzungsanwendungen, ökonomischen und ökologischen Potenzialen. Available online: https://www.ffe.de/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/StudieSecondLifeKonzepte1.pdf.
6. Frank, M., Holz, D.S., Klohs, D., Offermanns, C., Heimes, H.H., and Kampker, A. (2024). Identification and Mitigation of Predominant Challenges in the Utilization of Aged Traction Batteries within Stationary Second-Life Scenarios. Energies, 17.10.20944/preprints202401.0395.v1 ↗
7. Does energy storage provide a profitable second life for electric vehicle batteries?10.1016/j.eneco.2020.105010 ↗
8. (2024, February 28). Experian. New and Used Light Vehicle Sales in the United States from 2010 to 2022 (in Million Units). Available online: https://www.statista.com/statistics/183713/value-of-us-passenger-cas-sales-and-leases-since-1990/.
9. Ricardo, D. (1821). On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation, Batoche Books. [3rd ed.].
10. The Market for “Lemons”: Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism10.2307/1879431 ↗
11. When Do Losses Loom Larger than Gains?10.1509/jmkr.42.2.134.62283 ↗
12. The Impact of Psychological Value (Emotional Attachment) on the Price of Second-Hand Goods10.4236/oalib.1109708 ↗
13. Tuovila, A. (2024, March 08). Residual Value Explained, With Calculation and Examples. Investopedia, 28 October 2023. Available online: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/residual-value.asp.
14. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2024, February 28). Annual Chained Inflation Rate in the United States from 2000 to 2022 at Year-End. Available online: https://www.statista.com/statistics/191119/chained-inflation-rate-in-the-us-since-2001/.
15. Frick, W. (2024, February 28). What Causes Inflation? Harvard Business Review, 23 December 2022. Available online: https://hbr.org/2022/12/what-causes-inflation.
16. Bank of Canada (2024, February 02). Monetary Policy Report—January 2023. Available online: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/mpr-2023-01-25.pdf.
17. Dhar, R. (2024, February 28). How Does Inflation Change Consumer Behavior? Three Questions, 22 August 2022. Available online: https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/how-does-inflation-change-consumer-behavior#:~:text=With%20some%20products%20you%20postpone,going%20to%20Costco%20or%20Walmart.
18. The influence of financial incentives and other socio-economic factors on electric vehicle adoption10.1016/j.enpol.2014.01.043 ↗
19. Yeoman, I., and McMahon-Beattie, U. (2011). Revenue Management, Palgrave Macmillan.10.1057/9780230294776 ↗
20. Tarver, E. (2024, February 28). What is C2C? How Does the Customer-to-Customer Model Work? Investopedia, 20 April 2022. Available online: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/ctoc.asp.
21. Kollmann, T., and Kirchgeorg, M. (2024, March 03). Gabler Wirtschaftslexikon: Consumer-to-Consumer-Markt. Available online: https://wirtschaftslexikon.gabler.de/definition/consumer-consumer-markt-30001/version-253595.
22. Kirchgeorg, M. (2024, March 06). Gabler Wirtschaftslexikon: Marktstruktur. Available online: https://wirtschaftslexikon.gabler.de/definition/marktstruktur-40203.
23. Besanko, D., Dranove, D., Shanley, M., and Schaefer, S. (2013). Economics of Strategy, John Willey and Sons. [6th ed.].
24. Price discrimination via second-hand markets10.1016/0014-2921(94)90003-5 ↗
25. Offline and Online Search in Used Durables Markets10.1016/j.jretai.2014.03.005 ↗
26. Cox Automotive (2024, February 28). Electric Vehicle Sales Report: Q4 2023. Available online: https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Q4-2023-Kelley-Blue-Book-Electric-Vehicle-Sales-Report.pdf.
27. (2024, February 28). edmunds. Used Vehicle Report: Q3 2023. Available online: https://static.ed.edmunds-media.com/unversioned/img/industry-center/press/lp-promos/2023-q3-edmunds-used-vehicle-report.pdf.
28. (2024, February 28). Recurrent. Used Electric Car Prices & Market Report—Q1 2024. Available online: https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/used-electric-vehicle-buying-report.
29. Accardo, A., Dotelli, G., Musa, M.L., and Spessa, E. (2021). Life Cycle Assessment of an NMC Battery for Application to Electric Light-Duty Commercial Vehicles and Comparison with a Sodium-Nickel-Chloride Battery. Appl. Sci., 11.10.3390/app11031160 ↗
30. Lithium-Ion Battery Supply Chain Considerations: Analysis of Potential Bottlenecks in Critical Metals10.1016/j.joule.2017.08.019 ↗
31. Surging lithium price will not impede the electric vehicle boom10.1016/j.joule.2022.06.028 ↗
32. Deutsche Rohstoffagentur (2024, February 27). Preismonitor. Available online: https://www.deutsche-rohstoffagentur.de/DERA/DE/Produkte/Rohstoffpreise/Preismonitor/preismonitor_node.html.
33. (2024, May 08). Bruno Venditti. Visualized: How Much Do EV Batteries Cost? Visual Capitalist, 15 October 2023. Available online: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualized-how-much-do-ev-batteries-cost/.
34. Tesla (2024, February 28). Tesla Vehicle Production & Deliveries and Date for Financial Results & Webcast for Fourth Quarter 2023. Available online: https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-fourth-quarter-2023#:~:text=In%202023%2C%20vehicle%20deliveries%20grew,us%20achieve%20a%20great%202023.
35. BYD (2024, February 28). BYD Concludes 2023 with Record 3 Million Annual Sales, Leading Global NEV Market. Available online: https://www.byd.com/us/news-list/BYD-Concludes-2023-with-Record-3-Million-Annual-Sales-Leading-Global-NEV-Market.html#:~:text=BYD%20Concludes%202023%20with%20Record,Sales%2C%20Leading%20Global%20NEV%20Market.
36. He, L., and Isidore, C. (2023, February 27). China’s BYD Is Selling More Electric Cars than Tesla, 2 January 2024. Available online: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/02/cars/china-byd-ev-sales-increase-tesla-intl-hnk/index.html#:~:text=BYD%20sold%201.57%20million%20electric,400%2C000%20units%20posted%20in%202022.
37. Whitehead, J., Washington, S.P., and Franklin, J.P. (2019). The Impact of Different Incentive Policies on Hybrid Electric Vehicle Demand and Price: An International Comparison. World Electr. Veh. J., 10.10.3390/wevj10020020 ↗
38. Why people want to buy electric vehicle: An empirical study in first-tier cities of China10.1016/j.enpol.2017.10.026 ↗
39. Lashari, Z.A., Ko, J., and Jang, J. (2021). Consumers’ Intention to Purchase Electric Vehicles: Influences of User Attitude and Perception. Sustainability, 13.10.3390/su13126778 ↗
40. Analysing the take up of battery electric vehicles: An investigation of barriers amongst drivers in the UK10.1016/j.trd.2018.06.016 ↗
41. Bowler, M. (2014). Battery Second Use: A Framework for Evaluating the Combination of Two Value Chains. [Doctoral Dissertation, Clemson University].
42. Battery second life: Hype, hope or reality? A critical review of the state of the art10.1016/j.rser.2018.04.035 ↗
43. Arnberger, A., Coskun, E., and Rutrecht, B. (2024, March 04). Recycling von Lithium-Ionen-Batterien. Available online: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349634408_Recycling_von_Lithium-Ionen-Batterien.
44. Cready, E., Lippert, J., Pihl, J., Weinstock, I., and Symons, P. (2024, March 08). Technical and Economic Feasibility of Applying Used EV Batteries in Stationary Applications, Available online: https://www.osti.gov/biblio/809607/.
45. Electric vehicle battery reuse: Preparing for a second life
46. Technical Viability of Battery Second Life: A Study From the Ageing Perspective10.1109/TIA.2018.2801262 ↗
47. Quantifying EV battery end-of-life through analysis of travel needs with vehicle powertrain models10.1016/j.jpowsour.2015.01.072 ↗
48. Bockey, G., and Heimes, H.H. (2024, March 07). Europa Batterieproduktion—Battery-News. Available online: https://battery-news.de/batterieproduktion/.
49. Weymann, L. (2024, March 07). Battery Cell Production in Europe: In Which Countries Will European Manufacturers Dominate—And Where Do International Companies Want to Gain a Foothold?. Available online: https://www.isi.fraunhofer.de/en/blog/themen/batterie-update/batterie-zell-fertigung-europa-hersteller-europaeisch-international-kapazitaeten-2030.html.
50. Gaines, L., Dai, Q., Vaughey, J.T., and Gillard, S. (2021). Direct Recycling R&D at the ReCell Center. Recycling, 6.10.3390/recycling6020031 ↗
51. Brückner, L., Frank, J., and Elwert, T. (2020). Industrial Recycling of Lithium-Ion Batteries—A Critical Review of Metallurgical Process Routes. Metals, 10.10.3390/met10081107 ↗
52. European Comission (2024, March 08). Safety Gate: The EU Rapid Alert System for Dangerous Non-Food Products. Available online: https://ec.europa.eu/safety-gate-alerts/screen/webReport#weeklyReports.
53. (2022). Anforderungen an die Umnutzung von Sekundärbatterien: Anforderungen an die Umnutzung von Sekundärbatterien (Standard No. DIN IEC 63330 (VDE 0510-59): 2022-05).
54. Bundesministerium der Justiz (2024, March 08). Verordnung über die Überlassung, Rücknahme und Umweltverträgliche Entsorgung von Altfahrzeugen. Available online: https://www.gesetze-im-internet.de/altautov/anhang.html.
55. UNECE (2024, May 08). ADR 2023—Agreement concerning the International Carriage of Dangerous Goods by Road: ADR 2023 Vol. I (ECE/TRANS/326 (Vol. I)). Available online: https://unece.org/transport/standards/transport/dangerous-goods/adr-2023-agreement-concerning-international-carriage.
56. Bernhart, W., Kaur, H., Hotz, T., and Koper, S. (2024, February 19). Repurpose, Reuse or Recycle? What Battery Producers and Users Need to Know. Available online: https://www.rolandberger.com/en/Insights/Publications/Second-life-and-recycling-Enabling-a-circular-battery-economy.html.
57. Melin, H.E. (2024, February 19). State-of-the-Art in Reuse and Recycling of Lithium-Ion Batteries—A Research Review. Available online: https://www.energimyndigheten.se/globalassets/forskning--innovation/overgripande/state-of-the-art-in-reuse-and-recycling-of-lithium-ion-batteries-2019.pdf.
58. Miao, Y., Hynan, P., von Jouanne, A., and Yokochi, A. (2019). Current Li-Ion Battery Technologies in Electric Vehicles and Opportunities for Advancements. Energies, 12.10.3390/en12061074 ↗
59. Bloomberg (2024, February 28). BloombergNEF 2023. Available online: https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-hit-record-low-of-139-kwh/#:~:text=New%20York%2C%20November%2027%2C%202023,research%20provider%20BloombergNEF%20(BNEF).
60. Bloomberg (2024, February 28). BloombergNEF 2022. Available online: https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-rise-for-first-time-to-an-average-of-151-kwh/.
61. Repurposing Used Electric Car Batteries: A Review of Options10.1007/s11837-017-2368-9 ↗
62. Breaking it down: A techno-economic assessment of the impact of battery pack design on disassembly costs10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.120437 ↗
63. Argonne National Laboratory (2019). EverBatt: A Closed-Loop Battery Recycling Cost and Environmental Impacts Model, Argonne National Laboratory.
64. Lithium-ion batteries—Current state of the art and anticipated developments10.1016/j.jpowsour.2020.228708 ↗