Enabling a low-carbon electricity system for Southern Africa

Southern Africa faces the dual challenge of providing affordable energy to meet rapidly growing electricity demand while limiting carbon emissions and socio-environmental impacts. We combined open-source geospatial, hydrological, and electricity grid-investment models to develop cost-optimal low-carbon electricity pathways for Southern Africa. If technology and fuel prices continue to follow current trends, wind and solar technologies can become the dominant sources of electricity in the region by 2040. Importantly, no new coal capacity is built in any scenario except when inter-regional transmission is constrained. Furthermore, despite the abundant hydropower potential in the region, nearly half of the planned hydropower capacity is not cost competitive, thus supporting freshwater conservation efforts. An 80% clean energy target can halve annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2040, as compared with 2020, with only a modest 6% cost premium. Alternatively, retiring coal plants 20 years earlier could result in even greater emission reductions but could incur 12% higher annual costs. Southern Africa faces the dual challenge of providing affordable energy to meet rapidly growing electricity demand while limiting carbon emissions and socio-environmental impacts. We combined open-source geospatial, hydrological, and electricity grid-investment models to develop cost-optimal low-carbon electricity pathways for Southern Africa. If technology and fuel prices continue to follow current trends, wind and solar technologies can become the dominant sources of electricity in the region by 2040. Importantly, no new coal capacity is built in any scenario except when inter-regional transmission is constrained. Furthermore, despite the abundant hydropower potential in the region, nearly half of the planned hydropower capacity is not cost competitive, thus supporting freshwater conservation efforts. An 80% clean energy target can halve annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2040, as compared with 2020, with only a modest 6% cost premium. Alternatively, retiring coal plants 20 years earlier could result in even greater emission reductions but could incur 12% higher annual costs.