ST-CDF: A Generative AI Framework for Physics-Consistent Imputation and Simulation in Precision Agriculture

Incomplete spatio-temporal (ST) data from sensor networks in precision agriculture often limits environmental modeling and decision-making accuracy. To address this, we propose the Spatio-Temporal Conditional Diffusion Framework (ST-CDF), a generative approach for high-fidelity data reconstruction. The framework’s core is a deep denoising network that integrates a Graph Attention Network (GAT) to explicitly model non-Euclidean spatial correlations, a Differential Attention Transformer to capture abrupt temporal dynamics, and an Inverse Discrete Wavelet Transform (IDWT) module to preserve multi-scale signal details. The generative process is constrained by a physics-informed training objective, which injects known physical laws (i.e., the Penman–Monteith equation for reference evapotranspiration, ET0) as an inductive bias, ensuring the imputed data maintains physical consistency. For privacy-preserving deployment on resource-constrained IoT devices, we extend the framework with a Federated Cluster-Guided Distillation (Fed-CGD) strategy. We conducted extensive experiments against established methods on two real-world agricultural datasets. ST-CDF demonstrated improved imputation accuracy across evaluated metrics. Its efficacy was most pronounced in the physically-demanding ET0 calculation task, where data imputed by ST-CDF at an 80% missing rate achieved a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.3485 and a Coefficient of Determination (R2) of 0.7558, outperforming the baseline models. Furthermore, we explore ST-CDF as an explainable (XAI) framework for active agricultural decision support, demonstrating its utility in performing counterfactual simulations of “what-if” interventions, such as irrigation. The findings highlight ST-CDF as an effective, physically-grounded, and interpretable tool for data-driven scientific computation and precision agriculture.