Analysis of Vehicle Carrying Capacity in Circular Routes for Earthwork Transportation in Water Conservancy Projects Using Cellular Automaton Model

To scientifically explore the vehicle capacity characteristics of circular earthwork transportation routes in water conservancy projects, this paper takes the second-phase project of the Huaihe River Sea Entrance Channel as the research background. Key influencing factors such as road conditions, vehicle performance parameters, safe car-following distance, and earthwork loading–unloading duration are comprehensively considered, and a cellular automaton simulation model is constructed. Horizontal comparative verification is carried out with the Intelligent Driver Model, System Dynamics model, and field measured data to verify model accuracy. The results reveal that the cellular automaton (CA) model yields a total vehicle transport trip count of 606, with a MAPE of 0.66% when compared against the field-measured average of 602 trips. The simulated average travel speed reaches 16.71 km/h, corresponding to a MAPE of 2.89% relative to the field measurement of 16.24 km/h. The error metrics of these two indicators are markedly lower than those derived from alternative models. Due to differences in modeling paradigms and applicable mechanisms, the three models exhibit distinct characteristics in simulation performance. Among them, the cellular automaton model is more suitable for the circular earthwork transportation scenario of this study, which can accurately reflect the coupling characteristics of microscopic traffic behaviors such as multi-route confluence and node queuing, and has high consistency with actual engineering operation. Sensitivity analysis indicates that improving earth loading efficiency and reasonably arranging excavator quantity can significantly enhance the overall transportation efficiency. The modeling ideas and simulation analysis method adopted in this paper are not only applicable to the specific engineering scenario, but also can be extended to similar water conservancy earthwork transportation and large-scale engineering logistics transportation fields. It can provide theoretical basis and engineering reference for earthwork scheduling optimization and quantitative calculation of traffic capacity in water conservancy projects.