Modelling Prevention Policy Impacts on Local Authority-Funded Social Care Services in England: A System Dynamics Modelling Approach
Source abstract
Abstract
England’s population is living longer, a sign of progress and better health, but adult social care (ASC) services must adapt to support a growing number of older residents, who may need help to remain independent, safe, and well. Kent County Council (KCC), in South East England, projects a 28% and 53% increase in its residents aged 65+ and 85+, respectively, over the next decade. This study aimed to inform the development of KCC’s ASC Prevention Framework using a System Dynamics Modelling (SDM) approach to evaluate the impact of preventive interventions on ASC demand and expenditure. Using linked local health and social care data and the Johns Hopkins ACG® tool, the 1.3 million adult population was stratified into Patient Needs Groups. Analyses showed that higher ASC costs were associated with being older females, living alone, deprivation, and frailty-related indicators such as dementia, history of falls, etc. Around 28% of older adults aged 65+ accounted for 80% of ASC costs within that cohort, and related scenario testing projected a 48% rise in ASC costs over 10 years without interventions, moderated to 33% with targeted prevention. These findings demonstrate the value of integrated data and modelling to inform strategic, prevention-focused ASC planning.
Source: crossref · Quality: baseline
Research context
OpenAlex topics: demographic modeling and climate adaptation · Complex Systems and Decision Making · Interprofessional Education and Collaboration
SciVX discovery tags are terminology-based. OpenAlex topics are source-provided classifications.
Affiliations
Public Health Department, Kent County Council, Maidstone ME14 1XQ, UK
Herefordshire Council, Hereford HR4 0LE, UK
Public Health Consultant-Gloucestershire County Council, Shire Hall, Gloucester GL1 2TG, UK
Whole Systems Partnership, Bradford BD13 3TS, UK
Health Service Executive (HSE), D20 PT98 Dublin, Ireland
References (59)
Show source-provided references
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