Risk Assessment of Tunnel Construction Deformation Under Spatial Variation in Hydraulic Parameters

Tunnel construction in soft soil environments involves significant geological and hydraulic uncertainty, particularly where permeable sandy interlayers within soft clay are prone to seepage-induced instability and excessive settlement. Although hydraulic–mechanical coupling is widely recognized, the spatial variability of key soil parameters (e.g., permeability and elastic modulus) is often inadequately represented, limiting quantitative evaluation of heterogeneous ground effects on construction-induced deformation. In this study, statistical analyses of site investigation and monitoring data are conducted to characterize parameter distributions and transverse settlement trough morphology, supporting model validation. A fluid–solid hydro-mechanical coupled numerical model in ABAQUS demonstrates that groundwater flow increases maximum surface settlement from 3.18 cm to 3.58 cm, confirming the significance of hydraulic coupling. To quantify spatial variability effects, a stochastic finite element framework based on random field theory is developed, showing that variations in vertical correlation length influence both the mean and dispersion of maximum settlement. Specifically, under a settlement control threshold of 40 mm, the failure probability decreases from 24.21% to 1.01% as the vertical correlation length increases from 1.5 m to 6 m. Finally, an engineering-oriented risk assessment framework is established using settlement trough area as the core loss indicator; its lognormal distribution is verified, and failure probability and reliability indices are integrated with code-based thresholds to evaluate construction risk under different scenarios, with the resulting risk levels ranging from Relatively High (Level III) to Moderate (Level II).