Prominence-Based DEMATEL Analysis of Coal and Gas Outburst Risk Factors in the Zonguldak Coal Basin

Coal and gas outbursts remain one of the most critical dynamic hazards in underground coal mining, driven by complex interactions among geological, gas-related, and structural factors. In this study, a dataset comprising 90 documented coal and gas outbursts occurred in Zonguldak Coal Basin was analyzed using the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method. Hierarchical levels of significance among key controlling factors were formed and the relative influence levels of the parameters were comparatively evaluated to determine their contribution to the outburst risk mechanism. The study focuses on prominence-based interpretation supported by total influence matrix heatmap rather than conventional cause–effect diagrams. The results indicate that the prominence index provides a clear hierarchy of factor importance reflecting a structurally symmetric interaction pattern among the selected variables. Mining depth, gas content, and moisture content together account for more than 70% of total system importance, identifying them as the dominant drivers of coal–gas outbursts. Fault distance shows a secondary influence, whereas seam thickness and inclination exhibit comparatively minor contributions. The results indicate that the interaction structure of outburst risk factors is balanced, and that risk is primarily governed by their combined influence. Therefore, prominence-based evaluation and heatmap visualization provide a more reliable and practical basis for identifying critical factors and prioritizing risk control strategies. The results provide practical guidance for risk prioritization and preventive planning in deep and gas-rich coal mines.