A Framework for Managing Digital Transformation Risks in Transport Systems: Linking Digital Maturity and Risk Categories

Digital transformation is increasingly central to the development of transport systems, yet current research offers limited guidance on how digital maturity levels shape operational risk. Existing digital maturity models primarily support benchmarking and planning, but rarely integrate structured risk assessment. This study addresses this gap by proposing a framework that links digital maturity with the systematic identification and prioritisation of digital transformation risks. A Digital Maturity-Based Risk Assessment Framework (DMRisk-TS) is developed, classifying risks into three categories. Probability and severity are evaluated using fuzzy logic, while contextual modifiers account for the maturity gap and system coverage. The approach is demonstrated using a real tram transport system and the DMM-TRAM model. The analysis shows that risk profiles differ markedly across maturity levels. Low-maturity environments generate operational risks related to insufficient or non-integrated information. Transitioning between levels introduces implementation and data-integration risks. At high maturity levels, new systemic risks emerge, including error propagation, cyber vulnerabilities, and over-reliance on automated processes. DMRisk-TS offers a meaningful basis for understanding and managing risks in transport systems. The framework supports the prioritisation of mitigation actions, informs decisions on advancing maturity, and highlights that higher digitisation creates new classes of systemic risk.