Analysis of the Travelling Time According to Weather Conditions Using Machine Learning Algorithms

A large share of the global population now lives in urban areas, which creates growing challenges for city life. Local authorities are seeking ways to enhance urban livability, with transportation emerging as a major focus. Developing smart public transit systems is therefore a key priority. Accurately estimating travel times is essential for managing transport operations and supporting strategic decisions. Previous studies have used statistical, mathematical, or machine learning models to predict travel time, but most examined these approaches separately. This study introduces a hybrid framework that combines statistical regression models and machine learning algorithms to predict public bus travel times. The analysis is based on 1410 bus trips recorded between November 2021 and July 2022 in Kayseri, Turkey, including detailed meteorological and operational data. A distinctive aspect of this research is the inclusion of weather variables—temperature, humidity, precipitation, air pressure, and wind speed—which are often neglected in the literature. Additionally, sensitivity analyses are conducted by varying k values in the K-nearest neighbors (KNN) algorithm and threshold values for outlier detection to test model robustness. Among the tested models, CatBoost achieved the best performance with a mean squared error (MSE) of approximately 18.4, outperforming random forest (MSE = 25.3) and XGBoost (MSE = 23.9). The empirical results show that the CatBoost algorithm consistently achieves the lowest mean squared error across different preprocessing and parameter settings. Overall, this study presents a comprehensive and environmentally aware approach to travel time prediction, contributing to the advancement of intelligent and adaptive urban transportation systems.