Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Driving Force Analysis of Wetland Landscape Pattern in Northern Guangxi

The karst ecologically fragile region of northern Guangxi faces dual pressures from wetland shrinkage and landscape functional degradation driven by rapid urbanisation. The mechanisms governing its multi-scale landscape pattern evolution and the dominance of disturbances require urgent clarification. This study integrates land use data from 1980 to 2020, employing ArcGIS 10.8 analysis, Fragstats landscape indices, and optimal parameter geographic detectors to construct a ‘pattern-process-driver’ interpretative framework in northern Guangxi. It quantitatively reveals the evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of wetland landscape patterns in northern Guangxi, thereby optimising wetland ecological conservation pathways. Results indicate the following: (1) Between 1980 and 2020, total wetland area decreased by 65.58 km2, exhibiting a ‘structural substitution’ trend characterised by natural wetland decline and artificial wetland expansion. (2) Wetland landscape patterns exhibited intensified fragmentation and increased structural complexity. (3) Wetland evolution was primarily driven by annual mean temperature, GDP, and annual mean precipitation, reflecting a composite mechanism characterised by climate dominance, economic pressure, and policy failure. Specifically, the increase in temperature is the main reason for the decrease in natural wetlands, while economic growth dominates the expansion of artificial wetlands. This study provides scientific basis for karst wetland ecological restoration and differentiated territorial spatial planning, offering reference for ecological and environmental governance in karst watersheds.