Distress-Level Prediction of Pavement Deterioration with Causal Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification

Pavement performance prediction serves as a core basis for maintenance decision-making. Although numerous studies have been conducted, most focus on road segments and aggregate indicators such as IRI and PCI, with limited attention to the daily deterioration of individual distresses. Subject to the combined influence of multiple factors, pavement distress deterioration exhibits pronounced nonlinear and time-lag characteristics, making distress-level predictions prone to disturbances and highly uncertain. To address this challenge, this study investigates the distress-level deterioration of three representative distresses—transverse cracks, alligator cracks, and potholes—with causal analysis and uncertainty quantification. Based on two years of high-frequency road inspection data, a continuous tracking dataset comprising 164 distress sites and 9038 records was established using a three-step matching algorithm. Convergent cross mapping was applied to quantify the causal strength and lag days of environmental factors, which were subsequently embedded into an encoder–decoder framework to construct a BayesLSTM model. Monte Carlo Dropout was employed to approximate Bayesian inference, enabling probabilistic characterization of predictive uncertainty and the construction of prediction intervals. Results indicate that integrating causal and time-lag characteristics improves the model’s capacity to identify key drivers and anticipate deterioration inflection points. The proposed BayesLSTM achieved high predictive accuracy across all three distress types, with a prediction interval coverage of 100%, thereby enhancing the reliability of prediction by providing both deterministic results and interval estimates. These findings facilitate the identification of high-risk distresses and their underlying mechanisms, offering support for rational allocation of maintenance resources.