Spatial–Temporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Land-Use Carbon Emissions: A Case Study of Jiangxi Province

Land-use carbon emissions denote the release or sequestration of greenhouse gases (e.g., CO2, N2O) resulting from human land-use activities, with land-use changes exerting a major influence on land-use carbon emissions. Revealing the coupling mechanism between land-use changes and carbon emissions is of crucial theoretical significance for achieving “dual carbon” goals and mitigating global climate change. Based on the land-use change data of Jiangxi Province, this study explored the Spatial–temporal relationship between land-use carbon emissions and land-use changes in Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2020 using a model of land-use dynamic degrees, a model of land-use transfer matrices, and the IPCC carbon emission accounting model. In this study, the factors influencing changes in land-use carbon emissions were comprehensively analyzed using an LMDI model and the Tapio decoupling model. The results indicated that: (1) Jiangxi Province’s land-use changes show a “two-increase, four-decrease” trend, with construction land and unused land experiencing the most significant shifts, while water, grassland, cropland, and forestland changes stayed near 1%. (2) Net land-use carbon emissions exhibit a rapid then gradual increase, with higher emissions in the north/south and lower levels in central regions. While overall land-use carbon emission intensity is declining, per capita emissions continue to rise. (3) Land-use carbon emission changes are primarily driven by emission intensity, land-use structure, efficiency, and economic level. In Jiangxi, economic growth mainly increases land-use carbon emissions, while land-use efficiency enhancement counters this trend. Jiangxi Province shows weak land-use carbon emission–economic growth decoupling, with land-use carbon emissions rising more slowly than economic growth. This study not only provides a typical case analysis and methodological framework for understanding the carbon emission effects of human–land relationships in rapidly urbanizing regions but also offers a specific scientific basis and policy insights for Jiangxi Province and other similar regions to formulate differentiated territorial spatial planning, promote ecological protection and restoration, and achieve green and low-carbon development pathways under the “dual carbon” goals.