Shots During One-Goal Leads and Match Outcomes in the English Premier League

This observational retrospective study aimed to examine the association between team behaviour during periods of one-goal leads and subsequent match outcomes while accounting for team level and match location. All matches (n = 380) of the English Premier League (EPL) during the season 2023/24 were analyzed. Team behaviour was evaluated by shots every 10 min during a one-goal lead (SP10MDOGL), a time-normalized indicator of offensive activity that reflects a team’s strategic orientation while protecting a narrow lead. Mixed effects multinomial logistic regression was used to establish the association between SP10MDOGL and the match outcome. Results indicated that increased SP10MDOGL was strongly associated with a higher likelihood of both drawing (Odds ratio (OR) = 2.37, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.29–4.33; Cohen’s d (d) = 0.47) and winning (OR = 3.38; 95%CI = 1.93–5.92; d = 0.67) compared to losing. This association remained consistent across high-, intermediate-, and low-level teams regardless of whether they played at home or away. These findings suggest that maintaining an offensive approach through an increased number of shots during a one-goal lead is associated with a higher likelihood of securing positive match outcomes within the elite-level football context, such as the EPL. Soccer coaches should consider implementing proactive offensive strategies when protecting a narrow lead, regardless of their team level and match location.