Simulation of Urban Sprawl Factors in Medium-Scale Metropolitan Areas Using a Cellular Automata-Based Model: The Case of Erzurum, Turkey

Urban development is the planned growth of cities that takes into account ecological issues, the needs of urban life, social and technical equipment standards, and quality of life. However, as a result of policies implemented by decision-makers and users, both planned and unplanned, urban space is expanding spatially outwards from the city, while also experiencing densification in vacant areas within the city and functional transformations in land use. This process, known as urban sprawl, has been intensely debated over the past century. Making the negative effects of urban sprawl measurable and understandable from a scientific perspective is critically important for sustainable urban planning and management. Transportation surfaces hold a significant share in the land use patterns of expanding cities in physical space, and accessibility is one of the main driving forces behind land use change. Therefore, the most significant consequence of urban sprawl is the increase in urban mobility, which is shaped by the needs of urban residents to access urban functions. This increase poses risk factors for the planning period in terms of time, cost, and especially environmental impact. Urban space has a dynamic and complex structure. Planning is based on being able to guess how this structure will change over time. At first, geometric models were used to study cities, but as time went on and the network of relationships became more complicated, more modern and technological methods were needed. Artificial Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines, Agent-Based Models, Markov Chain Models, and Cellular Automata, developed using computer-aided design technologies, can be cited as examples of these approaches. In this study, the temporal change in urban sprawl and its relationship with influencing factors will be revealed using the SLEUTH model, which is one of the cellular automata-based urban simulation models. Erzurum, one of the medium-sized metropolitan cities that gained importance after the conversion of provincial borders into municipal borders with the Metropolitan Law No. 6360, has been selected as the case study area for this research. The urban sprawl process and determining factors of Erzurum will be analyzed using the SLEUTH model. By creating a simulation model of the current situation within the specified time periods and generating future scenarios, the aim is to develop planning decisions with sustainable, ecological, and optimal size and density values.