Extreme Wind Speed Prediction Based on a Typhoon Straight-Line Path Model and the Monte Carlo Simulation Method: A Case for Guangzhou

The southeastern coastal region of China has long been affected by typhoon disasters, which pose significant threats to the safety of offshore structures. Therefore, predicting extreme wind speeds corresponding to various return periods on the basis of limited typhoon samples is particularly important for wind-resistant design. This study systematically predicts extreme typhoon wind speeds for various return periods and quantitatively assesses the sensitivity of key parameters by employing a Monte Carlo stochastic simulation framework integrated with a typhoon straight-line trajectory model and the Yan Meng wind field model. Focusing on Guangzhou (23.13° N, 113.28 °E), a representative coastal city in southeastern China, this research establishes a modular analytical framework that provides generalizable solutions for typhoon disaster assessment in coastal regions. The probabilistic wind load data generated by this framework significantly increases the cost-effectiveness and safety of wind-resistant structural design.