Substantiation of Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator Based on Physical Activity, Lifestyle Habits, and Underlying Health Conditions: A Longitudinal Nationwide Cohort Study

Purpose: Despite increasing rates of prostate cancer among men, prostate cancer risk assessments continue to rely on invasive laboratory tests like prostate-specific antigen and Gleason score tests. This study aimed to develop a noninvasive, data-driven risk model for patients to evaluate themselves before deciding whether to visit a hospital. Materials and Methods: To train the model, data from the National Health Insurance Sharing Service cohort datasets, comprising 347,575 individuals, including 1928 with malignant neoplasms of the prostate, 5 with malignant neoplasms of the penis, 18 with malignant neoplasms of the testis, and 14 with malignant neoplasms of the epididymis, were used. The risk model harnessed easily accessible inputs, such as history of treatment for diseases including stroke, heart disease, and cancer; height; weight; exercise days per week; and duration of smoking. An additional 286,727 public datasets were obtained from the National Health Insurance Sharing Service, which included 434 (0.15%) prostate cancer incidences. Results: The risk calculator was built based on Cox proportional hazards regression, and I validated the model by calibration using predictions and observations. The concordance index was 0.573. Additional calibration of the risk calculator was performed to ensure confidence in accuracy verification. Ultimately, the actual proof showed a sensitivity of 60 (60.5) for identifying a high-risk population. Conclusions: The feasibility of the model to evaluate prostate cancer risk without invasive tests was demonstrated using a public dataset. As a tool for individuals to use before hospital visits, this model could improve public health and reduce social expenses for medical treatment.