How the Pandemic Changes the Factors Influencing Aircraft Utilization: The Case of Korea

We investigate how the factors influencing aircraft utilization have changed during and post-Pandemic depending on the business model before. We classify the Pandemic into three periods (pre-, during and post- Pandemic) and the business models into three types (Total, FSC and LCC). For each group, we analyze the importance of factors using the SHAP and Random Forest models. Through group-difference tests on factor importance, we examine whether there are significant differences across the three periods and business models. According to the findings of the ANOVA (Analysis of Variance) and the Kruskal–Wallis assay, the importance of factors influencing aircraft utilization has changed across all business models over the three periods. Pre-Pandemic, a coincident index and a consumer price index were the principal factors. However, the exchange rate (KRW/EUR) gained significant importance during the Pandemic. This suggests that the Pandemic’s impact on the aviation industry was not limited to reduced demand but was also associated with changes in the importance of exchange rates and key business indicators for airline operations. Pre-Pandemic, there were significant differences among the business model groups. However, no meaningful differences were observed during and post-Pandemic. In other words, it seems that the leading indexes were closely interconnected pre-Pandemic, whereas lagging indexes and exchange rate became closely interconnected afterward. A group-difference test confirmed that no differences were observed among the business models, but differences were evident when considering the groups in their entirety. We presented the implications for changes in airline decision-making to understand changes in the aviation industry caused by the Pandemic, by identifying how the factors influencing aircraft utilization were altered.