SE-TFF: Adaptive Tourism-Flow Forecasting Under Sparse and Heterogeneous Data via Multi-Scale SE-Net

Accurate and timely forecasting of cross-regional tourist flows is essential for sustainable destination management, yet existing models struggle with sparse data, complex spatiotemporal interactions, and limited interpretability. This paper presents SE-TFF, a multi-scale tourism-flow forecasting framework that couples a Squeeze-and-Excitation (SE) network with reinforcement-driven optimization to adaptively re-weight environmental, economic, and social features. A benchmark dataset of 17.8 million records from 64 countries and 743 cities (2016–2024) is compiled from the Open Travel Data repository in github (OPTD) for training and validation. SE-TFF introduces (i) a multi-channel SE module for fine-grained feature selection under heterogeneous conditions, (ii) a Top-K attention filter to preserve salient context in highly sparse matrices, and (iii) a Double-DQN layer that dynamically balances prediction objectives. Experimental results show SE-TFF attains 56.5% MAE and 65.6% RMSE reductions over the best baseline (ARIMAX) at 20% sparsity, with 0.92 × 103 average MAE across multi-task outputs. SHAP analysis ranks climate anomalies, tourism revenue, and employment as dominant predictors. These gains demonstrate SE-TFF’s ability to deliver real-time, interpretable forecasts for data-limited destinations. Future work will incorporate real-time social media signals and larger multimodal datasets to enhance generalizability.