Probability Analysis of Overtopping During Construction Period of Dam Based on Improved Interval Non-Probabilistic Reliability
Source abstract
Abstract
Probabilistic analysis of overtopping is an important aspect of dam construction, and the uncertainty in the construction progress complicates the calculation of overtopping probabilities. Construction progress is significantly influenced by human factors, making it difficult to assign an accurate probability distribution. Although the interval non-probabilistic reliability (INPR) method can estimate the likelihood of events with unknown probability distributions, its calculation results for the overtopping probability have significant errors. To improve the rationality of the results, we developed a method that adopted flood frequency of the upstream flood level to correct the traditional INPR calculations, developing an improved model. Taking the Qianping Reservoir as an example, the overtopping probabilities for three construction schedules were calculated, and the results were compared with a flood routing calculation. The results indicated that the improved approach significantly improves the rationality of the calculations, and the results effectively reflected the impact of construction progress uncertainty on overtopping probabilities.
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Research context
OpenAlex topics: Dam Engineering and Safety · Geotechnical Engineering and Analysis · Probabilistic and Robust Engineering Design
SciVX discovery tags are terminology-based. OpenAlex topics are source-provided classifications.
Affiliations
School of Water Conservancy and Transportation, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co., Ltd., Zhengzhou 450003, China
Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
Funding
National Natural Science Foundation of China · China Postdoctoral Science Foundation · Natural Science Foundation of Henan Province · Program for Science & Technology Innovation Talents in Universities of Henan Province (HASTIT)
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