Study on Early Warning Methods for Shipping Input Risks Under Consideration of Public Health Events

The rapid expansion of economic globalization and trade has led to a sharp increase in the shipping investment risks currently faced by cities around the world. This study aims to explore the risk warning mechanism of shipping input under public health events to establish an effective risk warning method. This would enable the rapid identification of potential risk inputs and the implementation of targeted prevention and control measures to ensure public health and safety. This study investigates the mechanisms of both intra-regional and cross-border risk transmission within shipping networks. It establishes a transmission dynamics model (termed the SEIR-SEI model) incorporating climatic, economic, and health factors to analyze the potential inherent risks of regional shipping nodes. It uses the TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) model, modified by the entropy weight method, to calculate the importance of nodes in the shipping network. This comprehensive approach considers the network’s clustering coefficient, betweenness centrality, closeness centrality, degree centrality, and eigenvector centrality. To validate the practicality of the model, this study selects shipping data with Shanghai, China, as the destination node to conduct simulation computations of different risk propagation chains. The findings demonstrate that overall risk transmission is determined by the joint influence of a node’s inherent risks and propagation probabilities. This study not only clarifies the process of cross-border transmission of public health events through the shipping network between cities of different countries, but also provides insights for the application of shipping input risk assessment systems, enriching the academic research on logistics network propagation.