A Dynamic Assessment Methodology for Accident Occurrence Probabilities of Gas Distribution Station

Gas distribution stations (GDSs), pivotal nodes in long-distance natural gas transportation networks, are susceptible to catastrophic fire and explosion accidents stemming from system failures, thereby emphasizing the urgency for robust safety measures. While previous studies have mainly focused on gas transmission pipelines, GDSs have received less attention, and existing risk assessment methodologies for GDSs may have limitations in providing accurate and reliable accident probability predictions and fault diagnoses, especially under data uncertainty. This paper introduces a novel dynamic accident probability assessment framework tailored for GDS under data uncertainty. By integrating Bayesian network (BN) modeling with fuzzy expert judgments, frequentist estimation, and Bayesian updating, the framework offers a comprehensive approach. It encompasses accident modeling, root event (RE) probability estimation, undesired event (UE) predictive analysis, probability adaptation, and accident diagnosis analysis. A case study demonstrates the framework’s reliability and effectiveness, revealing that the occurrence probability of major hazards like vapor cloud explosions and long-duration jet fires diminishes significantly with effective safety barriers. Crucially, the framework acknowledges the dynamic nature of risk by incorporating observed failure incidents or near-misses into the assessment, promptly adjusting risk indicators like UE probabilities and RE criticality. This underscores the importance for decision-makers to maintain a heightened awareness of these dynamics, enabling swift adjustments to maintenance strategies and resource allocation prioritization. By mitigating assessment uncertainty and enhancing precision in maintenance strategies, the framework represents a significant advancement in GDS safety management, ultimately striving to elevate safety and reliability standards, mitigate natural gas distribution risks, and safeguard public safety and the environment.