Using the Newmark Sliding Block Method to Construct the Empirical Model of Permanent Displacement for Earthquake-Induced Landslides in China

Earthquakes and the secondary hazards they trigger, such as landslides, collapses, and debris flows, profoundly reshape the land surface and cause significant casualties, property damage and ecological disruption. This study collected 312 strong ground motion records from 19 seismic events in China, with magnitudes ranging from Ms5.2 to Ms8.0. Using the Newmark sliding block method and programming, permanent displacements for earthquake-induced landslides with varying yield accelerations were calculated. Two models (Model 1 and Model 2) for predicting permanent displacements of earthquake-induced landslides were developed through multiple regression analysis. Results show that the goodness of fit (R2) for the permanent displacement (logu) in Model 1 and Model 2 is 0.866 and 0.923, respectively. Model 2 incorporates higher-order terms of yield acceleration ratio (ay/PGA), which effectively reduce nonlinearity in the residuals observed in Model 1 and enhance its accuracy. Finally, these models were compared with classical empirical models. Models 1 and 2, by calculating permanent displacement from ground motion data, provide critical insights into the mechanisms of earthquake-induced landslides, and play a key role in enhancing emergency response strategies for seismic geological hazards.