Research on Influencing Factors of Promotion of Prefabricated Housing in Hainan Province Based on BPNN–DEMATEL

In order to solve the problem of the lack of an index system of influencing factors and an unclear evolution path of prefabricated housing development in Hainan Province, a method of identifying key influencing factors and analyzing the evolution path based on a back propagation neural network (BPNN) and decision experiment and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) was proposed. Firstly, the index system of influencing factors was constructed based on grounded theory; then, the key influencing factors were revealed through an expert survey and a BPNN-optimized DEMATEL model; finally, the evolution path of key influencing factors was explored. The research results show that factors F1 (imperfect standards and specifications), F2 (imperfect incentives), F9 (lack of motivation for corporate strategic transformation), F14 (insufficient market demand), and F17 (ununified design product standards) are the top five key influencing factors. Among the three basic paths and three composite paths, the weight of the composite path is higher than that of the basic path, and the degree of influence gradually increases with the complexity of direct and indirect effects between key influencing factors. In addition to coupling the basic path with key influencing factors, the composite path can also be obtained through the interaction evolution of the basic path.