Applications of Forward Stratigraphic Modelling in Modern Siliciclastic Settings: A Case Study from the Fraser River Delta, Canada

Forward stratigraphic modelling (FSM) is a relatively new approach that is used to test the importance of parameters that control stratigraphic stacking patterns and to reveal uncertainties such as sedimentation rate and accommodation space. Although FSM is commonly employed in the study of ancient systems, it is rarely applied to modern settings. The Fraser River Delta in Canada provides an opportunity to test applications of FSM in recently deposited sediments in an active sedimentary basin. Because it is un-dammed, the river enables comparison of the modern and ancient systems. It is also a well-studied river system, with sufficient data to generate a realistic model for predicting future scenarios. In this study, Dionisos software is used, and the evolution of the delta over the past 10,000 years is successfully simulated in two steps (5000 years each) using both realistic and real-time data. The main controlling parameters are observed to be the sediment supply and water discharge values, and to a lesser extent, sea level variation. Several possible future scenarios are tested, changing the main parameters to understand and to predict future morphological changes and stacking patterns. Increasing the main parameter values resulted in progradation, while reducing resulted in erosion, particularly in the subaqueous section of the delta. The results of this study can be used to calibrate numerical modelling applications in both modern and ancient deltaic settings.