Modeling the Trip Distributions of Tourists Based on Trip Chain and Entropy-Maximizing Theory

Suburban tourist railway is an emerging transportation mode for tourism. Knowing the travel demand and trip distribution patterns of tourists is an important prerequisite to the planning and construction of suburban tourist railways. However, this issue has attracted very little research attention so far. Therefore, this paper proposes a forecasting model focused on the trip distribution of tourists who travel with the suburban tourist railway. Based on the analysis of the characteristics of tourists’ trips and the use of the trip chain method, the frequency, order, distance, and visiting volume of stay points of the trips of tourists have been intensively studied. Then, a tourist trip distribution forecasting model was built in this paper. It uses the Entropy-Maximizing theory to predict trip chain distribution probability and obtain the distribution of tourists within the city. A case study that takes the H city as an example was conducted to test the proposed model. The results of this case show that the output of the model can reflect the real trip distribution characteristics of tourists very well, which demonstrates the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed model.