journal article·2024-09-26Open access

Extreme Value Index Estimation for Pareto-Type Tails under Random Censorship and via Generalized Means

M. Ivette Gomes, Lígia Henriques-Rodrigues, M. Manuela Neves, Helena Penalva

Applied Sciences· Volume 14· Issue 19

Abstract

The field of statistical extreme value theory (EVT) focuses on estimating parameters associated with extreme events, such as the probability of exceeding a high threshold or determining a high quantile that lies at or beyond the observed data range. Typically, the assumption for univariate data analysis is that the sample is complete, independent, identically distributed, or weakly dependent and stationary, drawn from an unknown distribution F. However, in the context of lifetime data, censoring is a common issue. In this work, we consider the case of random censoring for data with a heavy-tailed, Pareto-type distribution. As is common in applications of EVT, the estimation of the extreme value index (EVI) is critical, as it quantifies the tail heaviness of the distribution. The EVI has been extensively studied in the literature. Here, we discuss several classical EVI-estimators and reduced-bias (RB) EVI-estimators within a semi-parametric framework, with a focus on RB EVI-estimators derived from generalized means, which will be applied to both simulated and real survival data.
Source: crossref · Quality: baseline

Research context

OpenAlex topics: Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling · Stochastic processes and financial applications · Probability and Risk Models

SciVX discovery tags are terminology-based. OpenAlex topics are source-provided classifications.

Affiliations

Centro de Estatística e Aplicações, Universidade de Lisboa (CEAUL), Campo Grande, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal

Departamento de Estatística e Investigação Operacional, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa (UL), 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal

Departamento de Matemática, Escola de Ciências e Tecnologia, and Centro de Investigação em Matemática e Aplicações (CIMA), Universidade de Évora, 7000-671 Évora, Portugal

Instituto Superior de Agronomia (ISA), Universidade de Lisboa (UL), 1349-017 Lisboa, Portugal

Departamento de Economia e Gestão, Escola Superior de Ciências Empresariais, Instituto Politécnico de Setúbal, 2910-761 Setúbal, Portugal

Funding

FCT—Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia · HiTEc Cost Action

References (82)

Show source-provided references
1. Bingham, N.H., Goldie, C.M., and Teugels, J.L. (1987). Regular Variation, Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511721434 ↗
2. Reiss, R.-D., and Thomas, M. (2007). Statistical Analysis of Extreme Values with Applications to Insurance, Finance, Hydrology and Other Fields, Birkhaüser. [3rd ed.].
3. Estimation of the extreme value index and extreme quantiles under random censoring10.1007/s10687-007-0039-x ↗
4. Statistics of extremes under random censoring10.3150/07-BEJ104 ↗
5. Peaks-Over-Threshold modeling under random censoring10.1080/03610920902859599 ↗
6. Luzar-Siffler, V., Jarec, I., and Bekic, Z. (2010, January 21–24). A note on statistics of extremes for censoring schemes on a heavy right tail. Proceedings of the ITI 2010, 32nd International Conference on Information Technology Interfaces, Cavtat, Croatia. SRCE University Computing Centre Editions.
7. Estimation of the extreme value index for randomly censored data
8. Generalizations of the Hill estimator—Asymptotic versus finite sample behaviour10.1016/S0378-3758(00)00201-9 ↗
9. A simple generalization of the Hill estimator10.1016/j.csda.2012.07.019 ↗
10. A couple of non-reduced bias generalized means in extreme value theory: An asymptotic comparison
11. A simple general approach to inference about the tail of a distribution10.1214/aos/1176343247 ↗
12. Direct reduction of bias of the classical Hill estimator
13. A class of new tail index estimators10.1007/s10463-015-0548-3 ↗
14. A Review of More than One Hundred Pareto-Tail Index Estimators
15. La distribution la plus grande de n valeurs
16. The frequency distribution of the annual maximum (or minimum) values of meteorological elements10.1002/qj.49708134804 ↗
17. Sur la loi de probabilité de l’écart maximum
18. Limiting forms of the frequency of the largest or smallest member of a sample10.1017/S0305004100015681 ↗
19. Sur la distribution limite du terme maximum d’une série aléatoire10.2307/1968974 ↗
20. de Haan, L. (1970). On Regular Variation and Its Application to the Weak Convergence of Sample Extremes, Mathematical Centre Tract 32.
21. de Oliveira, T. (1984). Slow variation and characterization of domains of attraction. Statistical Extremes and Applications, D. Reidel.10.1007/978-94-017-3069-3 ↗
22. Geluk, J., and de Haan, L. (1987). Regular Variation, Extensions and Tauberian Theorems, Center for Mathematics and Computer Science. CWI Tract 40.
23. Generalized regular variation of second order10.1017/S144678870000046X ↗
24. Adaptive estimates of parameters of regular variation10.1214/aos/1176346596 ↗
25. Gomes, M.I., Pestana, D., Canto e Castro, L., Fraga Alves, M.I., and Martins, M.J. (1999). Efficient alternatives to the Hill estimator. Extreme Values and Additive Laws, CEAUL Editions.
26. Residual estimators10.1016/S0378-3758(00)00321-9 ↗
27. A sturdy reduced-bias extreme quantile (VaR) estimator10.1198/016214506000000799 ↗
28. Mean-of-order-p reduced-bias extreme value index estimation under a third-order framework10.1007/s10687-016-0261-5 ↗
29. Dey, D., and Yan, J. (2016). Threshold selection in extreme value analysis. Extreme Value Modeling and Risk Analysis: Methods and Applications, Chapman-Hall/CRC.10.1201/b19721 ↗
30. Comparison of extreme value index estimators10.1111/1467-9574.00068 ↗
31. Residual life time at great age10.1214/aop/1176996548 ↗
32. Statistical inference using extreme order statistics
33. Estimating tails of probability distributions10.1214/aos/1176350499 ↗
34. Models for exceedances over high thresholds10.1111/j.2517-6161.1990.tb01796.x ↗
35. Technical and statistical improvements for flow cytometric DNA analysis of paraffin-embedded tissue10.1002/cyto.990090613 ↗
36. Klein, J.P., and Moeschberger, M.L. (2005). Datasets for Survival Analysis—Techniques for Censored and Truncated Data, Springer. [2nd ed.].
37. (2024, April 21). Original by Klein, Moeschberger and Modifications by Jun Yan. KMsurv: Data Sets from Klein and Moeschberger (1997), Survival Analysis, 2012, R Package Version 0.1-5. Available online: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=KMsurv.
38. Non-regular frameworks and the mean-of-order-p extreme value index estimation10.1007/s42519-022-00264-w ↗
39. Longin, F. (2016). Bootstrap methods in statistics of extremes. Extreme Events in Finance: A Handbook of Extreme Value Theory and its Applications, John Wiley & Sons. Chapter 6.10.1002/9781118650318 ↗
40. Gumbel, E.J. (1958). Statistics of Extremes, Columbia University Press.10.7312/gumb92958 ↗
41. Castillo, E. (1988). Extreme Value Theory in Engineering, Elsevier.
42. Beirlant, J., Teugels, J.L., and Vynckier, P. (1996). Practical Analysis of Extremes, Leuven University Press.
43. Embrechts, P., Klüppelberg, C., and Mikosch, T. (1997). Modelling Extremal Events for Insurance and Finance, Springer.10.1007/978-3-642-33483-2 ↗
44. Tiago de Oliveira, J. (1997). Statistical Analysis of Extremes, Pendor.
45. Kotz, S., and Nadarajah, S. (2000). Extreme Value Distributions—Theory and Applications, Imperial College Press.10.1142/9781860944024 ↗
46. Coles, S. (2001). An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, Springer.10.1007/978-1-4471-3675-0 ↗
47. Beirlant, J., Goegebeur, Y., Segers, J., and Teugels, J. (2004). Statistics of Extremes. Theory and Applications, Wiley.10.1002/0470012382 ↗
48. Castillo, E., Hadi, A.S., Balakrishnan, N., and Sarabia, J.M. (2004). Extreme Value and Related Models with Applications in Engineering and Science, Wiley.
49. de Haan, L., and Ferreira, A. (2006). Extreme Value Theory: An Introduction, Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.10.1007/0-387-34471-3 ↗
50. Resnick, S. (2007). Heavy-Tail Phenomena: Probabilistic and Statistical Modeling, Springer.
51. Markovich, N. (2007). Nonparametric Analysis of Univariate Heavy-Tailed Data: Research and Practice, Wiley.10.1002/9780470723609 ↗
52. Gomes, M.I., Fraga-Alves, M.I., and Neves, C. (2013). Análise de Valores Extremos: Uma Introdução, SPE and INE Editions.
53. Balakrishnan, N., and Cohen, A.C. (2014). Order Statistics & Inference, Academic Press. Statistical Modeling and Decision Science.
54. Nonparametric estimation of the conditional tail index and extreme quantiles under random censoring10.1016/j.csda.2014.05.007 ↗
55. Nonparametric estimation of the conditional extreme value index with random covariates and censoring10.1016/j.jspi.2015.06.004 ↗
56. New estimators of the extreme value index under random right censoring, for heavy-tailed distributions10.1007/s10687-014-0189-6 ↗
57. A Lynden-Bell integral estimator for extremes of randomly truncated data10.1016/j.spl.2015.11.011 ↗
58. (2018). Extreme value statistics for censored data with heavy tails under competing risks10.1007/s00184-018-0662-3 ↗
59. Gaussian approximation to the extreme value index estimator of a heavy-tailed distribution under random censoring10.3103/S106653071504002X ↗
60. Tail product-limit process for truncated data with application to extreme value index estimation10.1007/s10687-016-0241-9 ↗
61. Estimating the conditional extreme-value index under random right-censoring10.1016/j.jmva.2015.10.015 ↗
62. On the study of extremes with dependent random right-censoring10.1007/s10687-018-0328-6 ↗
63. Estimation of the extreme value index in a censorship framework: Asymptotic and finite sample behavior10.1016/j.jspi.2019.01.004 ↗
64. Bias-corrected estimation for conditional Pareto-type distributions with random right censoring10.1007/s10687-019-00341-7 ↗
65. Estimating the second-order parameter of regular variation and bias reduction in tail index estimation under random truncation10.1007/s42519-018-0017-4 ↗
66. Bladt, M., Albrecher, H., and Beirlant, J. (2021). Trimmed extreme value estimators for censored heavy-tailed data. arXiv.10.1214/21-EJS1857 ↗
67. Nonparametric estimation of conditional cure models for heavy-tailed distributions and under insufficient follow-up10.1016/j.csda.2023.107728 ↗
68. Bladt, M., and Rodionov, I. (arXiv, 2024). Censored Extreme Value Estimation, arXiv.
69. A bias-reduced estimation for reinsurance risk premiums of heavy-tailed loss distributions under random truncation10.17654/0972086324012 ↗
70. Mann, N.R., Schafer, R.E., and Singpurwalla, N.D. (1975). Methods for Statistical Analysis of Reliability and Life Data, Wiley.
71. Maller, R.A., and Zhou, X. (1996). Survival Analysis with Long-Term Survivors, John Wiley & Sons.
72. Bagdonavicius, V., Kruopis, J., and Nikulin, M.S. (2011). Non-Parametric Tests for Censored Data, ISTE/WILEY.10.1002/9781118558072 ↗
73. Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of the generalized extreme-value distribution10.1093/biomet/67.3.723 ↗
74. Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of the three-parameter generalized extreme-value distribution from censored samples10.1080/00949658308810625 ↗
75. Algorithm AS 215: Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of the generalized extreme value distribution
76. Maximum likelihood estimation in a class of nonregular cases10.1093/biomet/72.1.67 ↗
77. A remark on the algorithm AS215: Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of the generalized extreme value distribution10.2307/2347695 ↗
78. On an improvement of Hill and some other estimators10.1007/s10986-013-9212-x ↗
79. The harmonic moment tail index estimator: Asymptotic distribution and robustness10.1007/s10463-013-0412-2 ↗
80. Henriques-Rodrigues, L., Caeiro, F., and Gomes, M.I. (2024). A New Class of Reduced Bias Generalized Hill Estimators. Mathematics, 12.10.3390/math12182866 ↗
81. New reduced-bias estimators of a positive extreme value index10.1080/03610918.2013.875567 ↗
82. Colubi, A., Blanco, A., and Gatu, C. (2016, January 23–26). Non-reduced versus reduced-bias estimators of the extreme value index-efficiency and robustness. Proceedings of the COMPSTAT 2016—22nd International Conference on Computational Statistics, Oviedo, Spain.