Uncertainty and risk in aircraft structures: current status and recommended directions

Widespread interest in uncertainty quantification methods for airframe design and certification is driven by the desire to realise acquisition and operational cost savings through increased reliance on analysis; the goal being to design and produce more robust airframes. General sources of uncertainty are described, that complicate airframe design and testing, thereby contributing to the high cost of airframes. Recent applications of uncertainty quantification are reviewed with the objective of highlighting promising research and transition applications. Finally, several challenges and needs are explored to suggest future steps that must be completed to enable practical application of uncertainty quantification in airframe design and certification.