Comparative Modelling of Land-Use Change Using LCM and GeoFLUS: Implications for Urban Expansion and Regional-Scale Geotechnical Risk Screening

Land-use and land-cover change plays a critical role in shaping urban expansion patterns and modifying near-surface soil conditions, hydrological behaviour, and geomorphological stability in rapidly developing regions. This study presents a comparative modelling framework to analyze long-term land-use change and its implications for regional-scale geotechnical risk screening by integrating historical land-use classification, Markov transition analysis, and machine learning–based spatial simulation. Landsat imagery from 1985 and 2024 was classified using a Support Vector Machine approach, and future land-use projections for 2063 were generated using both the TerrSet Land Change Modeler (LCM) and the GeoFLUS model under identical transition demands. Spatial driving variables included topographic, hydrological, and accessibility-related factors that influence soil behaviour and urban suitability. The results reveal sustained urban expansion primarily driven by the systematic conversion of agricultural land into built-up surfaces, while forested areas and water bodies exhibit high class persistence, as indicated by dominant diagonal values in the Markov transition matrix. Although both models reproduce consistent directional trends, they generate distinct spatial allocation patterns, with LCM producing compact and centralized growth and GeoFLUS generating more spatially dispersed expansion. These differences lead to contrasting implications for potential settlement, flooding, and slope instability zones. By treating future land-use maps as alternative geotechnical screening scenarios rather than fixed predictions, this study demonstrates how model uncertainty can be incorporated into hazard-sensitive planning. The proposed framework supports preliminary geotechnical zoning and infrastructure planning by identifying robust development corridors and spatial uncertainty zones where detailed site investigations may be prioritized. The methodology is transferable to other rapidly urbanizing regions facing complex soil and geomorphological constraints.