Risk Factor Analysis of Single Motorcycle Accidents in Road Traffic

This research examines the risk factors that influence injury severity in individual motorcycle accidents, utilising a dataset of 5253 incidents. Five machine learning algorithms—multinomial logistic regression, classification trees, random forests, XGBoost, and neural networks—were used to classify the results into three groups: Death (13.48%), Injury (80.14%), and No injury (6.38%). In all models, passenger presence was the most important predictor of injury. Motorcycle accidents involving passengers do not always have more serious consequences for several overlapping reasons. On the one hand, a motorcycle with a passenger has a significantly higher mass, which increases the braking distance and kinetic energy at the moment of collision, hindering quick defensive manoeuvres, cornering, and reactions to sudden hazards. Often, the rider also refrains from sudden movements to prevent the passenger from losing their balance. In the case of single-rider motorcycle accidents on roadways, approximately 5% of those involved with a passenger were fatalities, while approximately 48% were uninjured; in the case of those without a passenger, no one was uninjured. It follows from the above that the presence of a passenger increases the rider’s sense of responsibility. Other factors that significantly increased risk were single-lane carriageways, vehicle overturning, contaminated road surfaces, and collisions with complex objects, e.g., like trees. The multinomial logistic regression model had an overall accuracy of 69.2% on the test set. The Recurrent Neural Network achieved the best overall accuracy of 79.56%. Balanced accuracy, as the average between sensitivity and specificity of the RNN model for the “death” class was 68.15%, for the “injury” class—72.6%, and for the “no injury” class—96.61%. The Area Under the ROC Curve of the Recurrent Neural Networks model for “no injury” was 0.97, indicating it was very good at distinguishing between this class and the other classes. Even though it was easy to tell which cases did not involve injuries, it was still hard to tell the difference between fatal and non-fatal injuries in all models. The results support interventions tailored to specific situations, such as improved road lighting and speed control in rural areas, as well as helmet enforcement and safety measures at intersections in cities.