Predicting Learner Contributions in MOOC Learning Forums Using the Hidden Markov Model

Learner engagement is a pivotal factor affecting the effectiveness of Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs), as it promotes collaborative learning environments. However, measuring the extent of learners’ contributions in MOOC learning forums presents challenges due to the complex nature of engagement and its variability. Given the limited research in this domain, further investigation is necessary. This study aims to address this gap by utilizing the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to identify latent states of MOOC learners and improve their participation in learning forums. The study constructs a multidimensional observable signal sequence based on learner-generated post data from MOOC forums, with a particular focus on the widely attended course on a MOOC platform. To evaluate the predictive accuracy of HMM in forecasting learner contributions, the study employs several prominent prediction models for comparative analysis, including k-nearest neighbor, logistic regression, random forest, extreme gradient boosting tree, and the long short-term memory network. The results demonstrate that HMM provides superior accuracy in predicting learner contributions compared to other models. These findings not only validate the effectiveness of HMM but also offer significant insights and recommendations for enhancing forum management practices. This research represents a substantial advancement in addressing the challenges related to learner engagement in MOOC learning forums and underscores the potential benefits of employing the HMM approach in this context.