A Dual-Decomposition Graph-Mamba-Transformer Framework for Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

Accurate ultra-short-term wind power forecasting is vital for the secure and economic operation of power systems with high renewable penetration. Conventional models, however, struggle with multi-scale frequency feature extraction, dynamic cross-variable dependencies, and simultaneously capturing local fluctuations and global trends. This study proposes a novel hybrid framework termed VMD–ALIF–GraphBlock–MLLA–Transformer. A dual-decomposition strategy combining variational mode decomposition and adaptive local iterative filtering first extracts dominant periodic components while suppressing high-frequency noise. An adaptive GraphBlock with MixHop convolution then models structured and time-varying inter-variable dependencies. Finally, a multi-scale linear attention-enhanced Mamba-like module and Transformer encoder jointly capture short- and long-range temporal dynamics. Experiments on a real wind farm dataset with 10-min resolution demonstrate substantial superiority over State-of-the-Art baselines across 1-, 4-, and 8-step forecasting horizons. SHAP analysis further confirms excellent consistency with underlying physical mechanisms. The proposed framework provides a robust, accurate, and highly interpretable solution for intelligent wind power forecasting.