Microscale Modeling of Boarding and Alighting Processes at Shared-Use Bus Stops Under High Traffic Disruption

With the growing heterogeneity of public transport systems, accurate representation of passenger service processes at bus stops shared by multiple operators has become increasingly important. This study develops and validates a microscopic model of passenger boarding and alighting at bus stops characterized by unstructured service patterns, diverse vehicle fleets, and irregular stopping positions. The approach focuses on individual passenger movements, enabling modeling of walking times from different waiting positions and assessing how passenger distribution and bus stopping positions affect total dwell time. Variables describing the boarding and alighting process, including waiting position, vehicle stopping position, individual boarding and alighting times, and passenger walking speed, were modeled as random variables following theoretical distributions (beta, logistic, log-normal, and normal). Bayesian estimation and bootstrap methods were applied to assess parameter stability and model fit. Field studies were conducted in two Polish cities (Kraków and Kielce) at 18 high-interference bus stop locations. Results indicate that the proposed probabilistic modeling approach enhances the accuracy of passenger flow representation and supports analysis of the effects of passenger dispersion and bus stopping position on service efficiency. The developed model can be used in microsimulation of bus stop operations, transport infrastructure design, and decision-making by transport management authorities.