Accurate Construction of a Transient Groundwater Flow Model for a Near-Surface Disposal Site

Numerical simulation of groundwater level dynamics plays a crucial role in the safety assessment of near-surface radioactive waste disposal facilities. Such disposal sites are typically located in regions characterized by extensive bedrock outcrops. However, accurately characterizing the permeability of fractured media is challenging, and the scarcity of groundwater level data poses significant difficulties for constructing reliable numerical models. This study focuses on a near-surface disposal site in northwestern China. By integrating field packer tests with hydraulic conductivity tensors computed from borehole televiewer data, we quantitatively evaluated the permeability of fractured rocks of different lithologies to provide accurate parameters for numerical modeling. The constructed groundwater flow model was further calibrated and validated using long-term groundwater level monitoring data and field tracer-based groundwater flow direction tests, ensuring high model reliability. Using the calibrated model, groundwater level variations were simulated under various rainfall and pumping scenarios. The results show that pumping intensity in the downstream farmland area exerts a limited influence on groundwater levels beneath the disposal site, while rainfall intensity plays a dominant role. Under the heavy rainfall scenario, the groundwater level at the disposal site rises by approximately 5.2 m after 50 years, leaving a 6 m gap above the base of the disposal unit. Under prolonged heavy rainfall conditions, implementing drainage measures may be necessary to ensure the repository’s long-term safety.