A Component-Oriented Model for Risk Assessment in the Design of High-Tech Products

This study proposes a component-based model for assessing risks in the design of high-tech products. The model took into account the novelty of components, which affected the risk level in the development process. The risk assessment was based on fuzzy set theory, which allowed determination of the degree of importance of risk-generating factors, such as technical, economic, and organizational risks. The components were divided into “old” ones with the possibility of adaptation and “new” ones being implemented for the first time. The structure of the project included adaptation, acquisition, and development of new components. The component-oriented approach allowed for a reduction in the negative impact of risks in the early stages of development while optimizing decision-making on further product development. A case study involving the development of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) was conducted to demonstrate the model’s applicability. The assessed aggregated project risk varied from 0.0992 for projects based primarily on reusable components to 0.1902 for those involving a high proportion of newly developed components. The model’s sensitivity to component novelty made it possible to differentiate between low- and moderate-risk design scenarios. This is especially valuable for early-stage project selection and risk-informed “go/no-go” decisions in the design of complex systems.