InSAR-Supported Spatiotemporal Evolution and Prediction of Reservoir Bank Landslide Deformation

Landslide disasters pose severe threats to mountainous regions, where accurate monitoring and scientific prediction are crucial for early warning and risk mitigation. This study addresses this challenge by focusing on the Outang Landslide, a representative large-scale bank slope in the Three Gorges Reservoir area known for its significant deformation responses to rainfall and reservoir-level fluctuations. The landslide’s behavior, characterized by notable hysteresis and nonlinear trends, poses a significant challenge to accurate prediction. To address this, we derived high-precision time-series deformation data by applying atmosphere-corrected Small Baseline Subset Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SBAS-InSAR) to Sentinel-1A imagery, with validation from GNSS measurements. A systematic analysis was then conducted to uncover the correlation, hysteresis, and spatial heterogeneity between landslide deformation and key influencing variables (rainfall, water level, temperature). Furthermore, we proposed a Spatio-Temporal Enhanced Convolutional Neural Network (STE-CNN), which innovatively converts influencing variables into grayscale images to enhance spatial feature extraction, thereby improving prediction accuracy. The results indicate that: (1) From June 2022 to March 2024, the landslide showed an overall downward displacement trend, with maximum settlement and uplift rates of −49.34 mm/a and 21.77 mm/a, respectively; (2) Deformation exhibited significant correlation, hysteresis, and spatial variability with environmental factors, with dominant variables shifting across seasons—leading to intensified movement in flood seasons and relative stability in dry seasons; (3) The improved STE-CNN outperforms typical prediction models in forecasting landslide deformation.This study presents an integrated methodology that combines InSAR monitoring, multi-factor mechanistic analysis, and deep learning, offering a reliable solution for landslide early warning and risk management.