Leveraging Artificial Intelligence for Real-Time Risk Detection in Ship Navigation

The desire to improve the safety of navigation, especially in restricted and very busy areas like the straits, leads researchers to evaluate possible uses of Artificial Intelligence as an alternative to the traditional probabilistic methods. This is possible thanks to the large amount of available AIS data generated by ships in transit. In this work, a Machine Learning algorithm (Classification Decision Tree) was trained with eight features coming from AIS data of the Strait of Messina (Italy), with the aim of carrying out a two-class classification of the single AIS data to find anomalies in ship transits that could compromise navigation safety. Since anomalous events are relatively rare, compared to the large amount of information related to the normal navigation situations, the challenge of this work was to obtain an artificial dataset with the aim of simulating the possible anomalous navigation conditions for the Strait investigated, known the active risk mitigation means one. For this reason, the dataset containing abnormal events was obtained simulating different risk scenarios. A hyperparameters tuning with a Bayesian optimization approach and a 5-fold cross validation have been performed to improve the quality of the model and a large dataset has been tested. The accuracy of both validation and test phases is <99.5% and <95.9%, respectively. This can make it possible to identify anomalous navigation conditions in real time, in order to quickly classify possible conditions of risk. The method can be used as a Decision Support Tool by the authority in order to improve the capacity of the single operator to identify the possible risk situation inside the Strait of Messina.