Recent Advances on the VAN Method

In the 1980s, Varotsos, Alexopoulos and Nomicos (VAN) introduced a short -term earthquake (EQ) prediction method based on measurements of the electric field of the Earth at various locations on the Earth’s surface. The corresponding electric signals are called Seismic Electric Signals (SES). Here, we present the advances of the VAN method during the period 2022–2025. For this purpose, we make use of the VAN telemetric network comprising of eight geoelectric field stations that have operated in Greece since the 1990s. The SES reported and documented well in advance (at arxiv.org) are compared with the subsequent seismicity in Greece during the same study period. The comparison reveals that all strong EQs of magnitude M≥5.8 within the area N34.541.5E20.027.5 have been preceded by SES activities, thus leading to a hit rate of 100%. The study of the present results points to the need of continuing VAN experimentation in Greece. Moreover, we employ the Receiver Operation Characteristics (ROC) method to evaluate the performance of the method. Study of the ROC reveals a false alarm rate of approximately 5% which is shown to be statistically significant, while the method can be characterized as outstanding.