Machine Learning Prediction of Agitation in Dementia Patients Using Sleep and Physiological Data

Dementia is a progressive condition that affects cognitive and functional abilities. Psycho-motor agitation represents a frequent and challenging manifestation in People Living with Dementia (PLwD). This behavior contributes to heightened distress and increased risk of harm for patients, while posing a significant burden for caregivers, who must navigate the complexities of managing unpredictable and potentially harmful agitation episodes. Accurately predicting and promptly responding to agitation events is thus critical for enhancing the safety and well-being of PLwD. Leveraging artificial intelligence, tools can be used to monitor behavioral patterns and alert healthcare providers about potential agitation to facilitate timely and effective interventions. Despite the link between poor sleep quality and the likelihood of agitation, there remains a gap in utilizing sleep parameters for predictive analytics in this domain. This study explores the potential of integrating sleep and associated physiological data to predict the risk of agitation in dementia patients the next day, leveraging the Technology Integrated Health Management (TIHM) dataset. Our analysis reveals that the LightGBM model, enhanced with combined feature sets, delivers superior performance, achieving a weighted F1 score of 93.6% compared to standard baseline models. The findings underscore the value of incorporating sleep data into automated models and advocate for continued efforts to develop long-term agitation prediction methods.