A Data-Driven Framework for Modeling Car-Following Behavior Using Conditional Transfer Entropy and Dynamic Mode Decomposition

Accurate modeling of car-following behavior is essential for understanding traffic dynamics and enabling predictive control in intelligent transportation systems. This study presents a novel data-driven framework that combines information-theoretic input selection via conditional transfer entropy (CTE) with dynamic mode decomposition with control (DMDc) for identifying and forecasting car-following dynamics. In the first step, CTE is employed to identify the specific vehicles that exert directional influence on a given subject vehicle, thereby systematically determining the relevant control inputs for modeling its behavior. In the second step, DMDc is applied to estimate and predict the dynamics by reconstructing the closed-form expression of the dynamical system governing the subject vehicle’s motion. Unlike conventional machine learning models that typically seek a single generalized representation across all drivers, our framework develops individualized models that explicitly preserve driver heterogeneity. Using both synthetic data from multiple traffic models and real-world naturalistic driving datasets, we demonstrate that DMDc accurately captures nonlinear vehicle interactions and achieves high-fidelity short-term predictions. Analysis of the estimated system matrices reveals that DMDc naturally approximates kinematic relationships, further reinforcing its interpretability. Importantly, this is the first study to apply DMDc to model and predict car-following behavior using real-world driving data. The proposed framework offers a computationally efficient and interpretable tool for traffic behavior analysis, with potential applications in adaptive traffic control, autonomous vehicle planning, and human-driver modeling.