Analytical Models of Flight Fuel Consumption and Non-CO2 Emissions as a Function of Aircraft Capacity

The sustained growth of air traffic over the past decades has increased the aviation’s contribution to anthropogenic radiative forcing through both CO2 and non-CO2 emissions. Although the industry has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, this goal appears unrealistic without curbing, or at least stopping, the continued rise in traffic. To assess the potential of alternative travel options and quantify their environmental benefits, simple and flexible emission models are needed. In this work, we present a set of analytical models for estimating fuel consumption and associated emissions, including CO2, SOx, water vapour, and other key non-CO2 emissions such as NOx and carbon monoxide. We also examine the emissions of non-volatile particulate matter. These models require only flight distance and aircraft seat numbers, enabling broad applicability across traffic scenarios. The models are openly available via a GitHub repository, and their practical use is demonstrated through a case study of a representative day of Spanish air traffic.