Ensuring Southern Spain’s Energy Future: A LEAP-Based Scenario for Meeting 2030 and 2050 Goals

The transition towards a low-carbon energy system remains a critical challenge for regions heavily dependent on fossil fuels, such as Andalusia. This study proposes an energy planning framework based on the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) to model alternative scenarios and assess the feasibility of meeting the 2030 and 2050 decarbonisation targets. Three scenarios are evaluated, the Tendential Scenario (TS01), the Efficient Scenario (ES01), and the Efficient UJA (EEUJA) Scenario, with this last being specifically designed to ensure full compliance with regional energy goals. The results indicate that, while the Tendential Scenario falls short in reducing primary energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the Efficient Scenario achieves significant progress, though it is still insufficient to meet renewable energy integration targets. The proposed EEUJA Scenario introduces more ambitious measures, including large-scale electrification, smart grids, energy storage, and green hydrogen deployment, resulting in a 39.5% reduction in primary energy demand by 2030 and 97% renewable energy penetration by 2050. Furthermore, by implementing sector-specific decarbonisation strategies for the industry, transport, residential, and services sectors, Andalusia could position itself as a frontrunner in the energy transition while minimising economic and environmental risks. These findings underscore the importance of policy enforcement, technological innovation, and financial incentives in securing a sustainable energy future. The methodology developed in this study is replicable for other regions aiming for carbon neutrality and energy resilience through strategic planning and scenario analysis.